Sophomore Spotlight: T.J. Graham

Advanced Stats (Analytics)

All ratings/advanced statistics per Pro Football Focus premium statistics (subscription required)

If the game logs weren’t bad enough, one look at PFF’s premium statistics on Graham will make you cringe.

For the season, Graham was given an overall rating of -15.2. This was the worst wide receiver rating in the league, regardless of snap percentage.

Pass (Receptions)

Graham received a -12.1 in the pass category. Only Devery Henderson of New Orleans (-13.9) and Arizona’s Early Doucet (-12.3) received lower ratings. Graham received a negative rating in the pass category in 12 of 15 games played. His worst rating was a -5.0 against the Seahawks. His four dropped passes certainly factored into the rating.

His best rating came in Week 14 against St. Louis. Graham earned a +0.9 rating for the game. Only Scott Chandler (+2.0) and Fred Jackson (+1.8) received higher ratings for the Bills.

Run

Graham’s run rating was a -0.2. He only carried the ball one time all year long. This came against the Rams where he rushed the ball once for five yards.

Blocking

Blocking was another area where Graham struggled. His -1.7 rating was tied for 98th among wide receivers who played at least 25 percent of their respective team’s targets. The only receivers to receive a lower rating in this category were Antonio Brown (-2.1), Andre Roberts (-2.1), Donnie Avery (-2.3), Marques Colston (-2.4), Cecil Shorts (-2.9) and Armon Binns (-3.9).

Graham received negative ratings in 10 games for the Bills in 2012, although six of the negative scores were -0.1. This truly isn’t too bad, as a score of 0.0 is average. While I listed Graham’s performance against Miami as his best game, PFF rated it as his worst in terms of blocking. He graded out with a -1.1 score.

His best performance of the season in regards to blocking was against the Jaguars in Week 13. Graham earned a +0.9 rating. Week 6 at Arizona was Graham’s only other positive rating (+0.4) in the blocking category.

Penalties

Eighty-six wide receivers had better ratings than Graham’s -1.2 rating. That being said, Graham’s rating tied Roddy White and Calvin Johnson’s rating and was better than Dez Bryant (-1.6), Mike Wallace (-1.6), Steve Smith (-2.5),  Torrey Smith (-3.4) and Anquan Boldin (-5.6) among others. If Graham turns into a competent receiver, no one will care about his penalty rating.

Graham received a rating of +0.1 or +0.2 in 12 games. The remaining where Graham received a negative rating was against Tennessee (-0.9), Week 11 against Miami (-0.9) and Week 16 against Miami (-0.8), the only three games in which Graham was called for a penalty last season.

Miscellaneous (all stats according to PFF):

  • Graham played in 716 snaps in 2012.
  • Graham was targeted 58 times. Factoring in his 31 receptions, Graham’s percentage caught was 53.4%.
  • Graham recorded 183 yards after catch.
  • Three Ryan Fitzpatrick interceptions were thrown in Graham’s direction.
  • Graham had a total of seven dropped passes.
  • In 2012, Graham avoided or broke four tackles. This was second among Bills receivers behind Stevie Johnson (10).
  • Graham had a drop rate of 18.42% (seven drops on 38 catchable passes). Only Early Doucet had a higher drop rating among players receiving at least 25% of the team’s targets.
  • On pass plays greater than 20 yards, Graham was targeted 14 times. Graham had two receptions in these targets. The other 12 passes were deemed uncatchable.

 

2013 Stats (Prediction)

Graham’s 2013-2014 stats will hinge on who plays quarterback and how many snaps he possibly loses to rookie wide receiver Marquise Goodwin.

Games Played: 12

Games Started: 12

Receptions: 42

Yards: 504

Touchdowns: 3

I always worry about smaller wide receivers, and for that reason I don’t have Graham playing a full season in 2013. In three less games, I have Graham increasing his receptions to 42, an average of 3.5 receptions per game. In total yards, my prediction of 504 yards would be an average of 12 yards per reception, again a slight increase. Lastly, I see Graham upping his touchdown totals slightly, most likely on deep passes from E.J. Manuel.

Let’s be honest, there’s no place to go but up for T.J. Graham in 2013.

Previous Sophomore Spotlights:

Stephon Gilmore, CB

Cordy Glenn, LT

Continue to Page: 1 2

Tags: 2012 NFL Draft, North Carolina State, Sophomore Spotlight, T.J. Graham

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